In my second article about the World Cup, I delve into the stats and analyse which teams and players have the best chance to shine as well as unearth some potential gems. Here’s the analysis of groups A-D.
First of all I’ll explain how I created the table below and what it means. I started off by looking at all the teams’ matches from the beginning of 2012 up until their last international match. I totalled up the number of matches they played, goals they scored, goals they conceded, clean sheets they kept and in how many matches they failed to score. I then converted all of these numbers into averages for each team. Then to get the ‘Attack Rating’ I divided the goals scored average by the failed to score average, and to get the ‘Defensive Rating’ I divided the goals conceded average by the clean sheet average. The higher the ‘Attack Rating,’ the better the team, and the lower the ‘Defensive Rating,’ the better the team.
Some of the teams below, like Algeria, mainly played teams who don’t have much quality. This means that they scored more goals or kept more clean sheets than what they would do against the better teams. This may show that some teams are better defensively or attacking than they truly are. Although, I do think what the table represents overall is useful for us to find some good quality players, which may have been overlooked otherwise.
Please note that I couldn’t work out Ivory Coast’s attack rating as they failed to score in 0 matches, which makes the sum, 2.384/0 impossible. Their stats are; 26 games, 2.384 goals scored, 1.192 goals conceded, 0.461 clean sheets and they failed to score in 0.
KEY
Blue Box – Top ten overall.
Green Box – The five before the top ten overall.
Orange Box – Bottom ten overall.
GROUP A
Favourites Brazil haven’t lost a competitive home game in 57 matches, dating back to 1975. They go into the tournament with the highest attack rating, due to scoring 92 goals in the past 33 matches, and only failing to score twice. The most potent Brazilian is Barcelona’s Neymar, who has managed to score 21 goals and assist 20 more this season, for club and country in all competitions. For Brazil he is in red-hot form, after bagging a hat-trick against South Africa earlier this year.
Brazil’s striker Fred will be looking to replicate his form during the Confederations Cup, after becoming the top goalscorer for his side in the competition, notching five goals, with Neymar falling one shy of Fred’s tally.
Chelsea’s Oscar could be another good investment. The midfielder contributed to just under 10% of Brazil’s goals over the past two years, setting up a further 6. The other three teams in the group have some of the worst attacking ratings in the tournament, so picking up a Brazilian defender could also be worthwhile.
GROUP B
The Spanish haven’t conquered South America for over 500 years, but Vicente del Bosque’s men will look to do battle on the pitch, unlike their conquistador ancestors. Spain has the best defensive rating out of the 32 teams, and like Brazil, has a very high attack rating. None of the Spanish defenders carry much of an attacking threat, and even though they do have the best defensive rating, I’d be dubious about the Netherlands and Chile’s attacking threat. Pedro was Spain’s top goal scorer in the World Cup qualifiers, and has produced a total of 12 goals and four assists over the past two years. One of those goals was against Italy, in Spain’s recent friendly. In the past season he’s scored 19 goals and assisted 13 others for domestic club, Barcelona.
Gunner’s midfielder, Santi Cazorla, has seven goals and four assists to his name in friendly matches for the past two years, making him the highest goalscoring midfielder and assist provider. Robin van Persie hasn’t had the best of seasons at his club, after missing out on close to half of the season overall due to injuries. However, this didn’t stop the forward scoring 12 goals in his 21 appearances in the Premier League. He also scored 11 for his country in the World Cup qualifiers. Jeremain Lens was also on form during the qualifiers, scoring five goals. And the final Dutch attacking player who will play a big part in the Netherlands campaign is winger Arjen Robben. For the 13/14 Bundesliga winners, Robben has assisted 17 goals and scored 21 in all competitions.
Whilst the Netherlands has a good defensive rating, like Spain, I don’t think too much value can be found here. There are three main Chilean players to consider; Vidal, Vargas and Sanchez. Since the 12/13 season, Vargas has netted seven goals for his country, whilst Sanchez scored four goals but has three assists to his name. Also, Vidal and Vargas were Chile’s top goal scorers in the qualifiers, scoring five goals each.
Australia could be a treasure trove of points for Fantasy managers, as they have one of the worst defensive ratings in the World Cup. The Socceroos conceded 1.615 goals on average over the past two years, being the worst out of all the teams competing in the World Cup, apart from Italy. Fantasy managers should be eyeing up an attacking player from this group, who isn’t Australian, especially after Australia lost 6-0 to both France and Brazil at the end of 2013 – even Ecuador managed to put four past them earlier this year.
GROUP C
Colombia is my dark horse for the World Cup. In January 2012, José Pékerman took over as coach, and under his reign Colombia have performed very well. They have managed wins over Mexico, Uruguay, Chile and Belgium, as well as drawing with Brazil, Argentina and the Netherlands. With Pékerman at the helm, Colombia have scored 23, conceded 12, kept 12 clean sheets and failed to score in five out of 21 matches. With all the other teams in Group C not having a high attacking threat, and because under Pékerman Colombia have kept clean sheets in 57% of their games, picking up a defender or keeper looks ideal, if they’re priced right. If you want an attacking Colombian defender then look no further than Napoli’s left back Pablo Armero, who spent the second half of the season on loan at West Ham. During the qualifiers he assisted two goals and chipped in with a goal.
Columbia striker Radamel Falcao is more than likely to miss the World Cup, but could light things up in Brazil if he’s fit enough to play. In-form players for their domestic clubs are Jackson Martínez, Juan Cuadrado and James Rodríguez. Rodríguez is Ligue 1′s second-highest player for assists, after setting up 12 goals. The AS Monaco winger also found the net nine times in the league. Fiorentina’s right winger Cuadrado has scored 15 goals and assisted nine goals in all competitions this season, whilst Porto’s centre-forward, Jackson Martínez, has scored 20 league goals, making him the Primeira Liga’s top goal scorer. He also scored a further nine goals in other competitions. Colombia’s other centre forward, Gutiérrez, will be looking to maintain his form from the qualifiers, where he helped Colombia’s cause by scoring 6 goals.
In Greece’s last 15 matches they’ve managed to keep 11 clean sheets, so if you fancy your chances, then why not add a Greek defender to your team!
Whilst Ivory Coast’s attack rating isn’t available, they do have a couple of players who could rack up the points. Kalou scored five goals in the qualifiers, whilst Man City’s unhappy birthday boy, Yaya Toure, scored four and assisted two. AS Roma’s Gervinho has been enjoying a good season, scoring and assisting 12 goals in all competitions, and is top for assists in the Italian Serie A. He also managed to assist seven goals in the qualifiers.
Another left-back from this group who could bring home the points is Japan’s Yuto Nagatomo. This season for Italian club Inter Milan he’s netted five goals and assisted seven. He also picked up four assists for Japan in the qualifiers, being joint second highest. But, you’d have to rely on his attacking threat, which may put some managers off investing, as Japan doesn’t have that good of defence. At the other end of the pitch scoring goals is Okazaki and Honda. In the qualifiers, Honda scored five, whilst Okazaki was the top goal scorer for Japan, finding the net eight times. 33 year old central midfielder Kengo Nakamura also played a part in helping Japan qualify by assisting the most goals, five.
GROUP D
Uruguayan duo Luis Suárez and Edinson Cavani have been tearing their respective leagues up. Liverpool’s centre forward, Luis Suárez, is the Premier Leagues top goal scorer and assist provider for the season just gone, after he scored 31 goals and assisted 21 goals. Although Cavani hasn’t been as prolific as fellow country man Luis Suárez, he’s still Ligue 1′s joint second highest goal scorer, scoring 16. The pair was also on form during the qualifiers, as Cavani found the net five times and assisted three goals, whilst Suárez performed better, assisting five and scoring 11. Costa Rica does have a high defensive rating, but this is due to the quality of teams they played over the two year period the data was taken from. Recently, they have played three teams in friendlies that are competing in this year’s World Cup. They lost 1-0 to Australia, lost 4-0 to Chile and were defeated 1-0 by South Korea. This shows that they aren’t actually that defensively sound.
England have an average defensive rating but they do have a high attack rating. Daniel Sturridge was second to Suarez in the Premier Leagues list of top goal scorers, averaging 0.75 goals per game in the league in the past season, whilst Rooney’s average is 0.58. Rooney assisted 12 goals, three more than Sturridge. 29 year old left-back Leighton Baines was England’s top assist provider in the Qualifiers with four assists. He also assisted 4 goals this season for domestic club Everton in the league, and scored 5.
The Italians’ attack rating is in the top ten out of all the teams competing in the World Cup, and Mario Balotelli will be the man leading the attack. He scored the most goals in the qualifiers for Italy, finding the net 5 times. Balotelli’s also had a decent season at AC Milan, with 18 goals and 8 assists to his name. On the other hand to their good attack rating, they have the worst defensive rating out of the 32 teams. The Italians played 33 games over the past two years, and only kept six cleans sheets, whilst letting in 56 goals. The team’s also been on poor form recently, not winning any of their last 5 matches. They picked up 2-2 draws with Denmark, Armenia and Nigeria, a 1-1 draw with Germany and were defeated 1-0 by Spain.
