Forex Update
USD/CHF Will Look For A Support At 0.9140 And 0.9090
Submitted by Sameer Kapoor on Thu, 04/12/2012 - 14:37.
USD/CHF clearly made impulsive recovery from 0.9000 low, which means that bottom has been reached and that pair will move much higher in sessions and days ahead. In fact, pull-back from the most recent high appears corrective, which supports a continuation of a current uptrend firstly through red falling trend-line and much higher after that.
Support for wave 2) comes in at 0.9140 and 0.9090, while invalidation level stands at 0.9000.
Support for wave 2) comes in at 0.9140 and 0.9090, while invalidation level stands at 0.9000.
The Directionless Chop That Continues To Be The U.S. Dollar
Submitted by Sameer Kapoor on Tue, 04/10/2012 - 22:52.
Daily time frames are the key to my trade selection and while I’ve been busy with entries forex-related futures markets like crude oil and the Dow Jones – I’ve been steering clear of the greenback.
Once again the U. S. Dollar Index is falling from a rejection from the 80.00 area. This time the market was bale to climb to 80.36 before falling back below 80.00 but there has not been a rapid sell-off from there. Instead we’re seeing price action hang around – as if unable to leave the gravitational pull of the 80.00 level.
Once again the U. S. Dollar Index is falling from a rejection from the 80.00 area. This time the market was bale to climb to 80.36 before falling back below 80.00 but there has not been a rapid sell-off from there. Instead we’re seeing price action hang around – as if unable to leave the gravitational pull of the 80.00 level.
NFP Reaction in EUR/USD and Similarity to Dec ’09
Submitted by Sameer Kapoor on Mon, 03/12/2012 - 12:22.
Somehow I just remembered the NFP numbers from December 2009. At that time expectation was for loss 120K but number came out a loss only of 11K. Much better than expected and euro fell sharply that time and stocks rallied, same reaction as seen today. In fact, I have overlay chart from that time. You will notice that Stocks then moved sideways or even up for the next 30 days before they topped out, while Euro was falling sharply for the next 6monhts.
Will history repeat itself!? You can ignore it or you may not. But my charts today are telling me »Don’t Buy Euro«, and »We are Too High to Invest in Stocks«!
Euro –S&P relationship in Dec 2009 and later:
Euro –S&P relationship in Dec 2009 and later
March 2012
Will history repeat itself!? You can ignore it or you may not. But my charts today are telling me »Don’t Buy Euro«, and »We are Too High to Invest in Stocks«!
Euro –S&P relationship in Dec 2009 and later:
Euro –S&P relationship in Dec 2009 and later
March 2012
Staying Nimble With the EUR/USD’s Intraday Weakness by forexpros.com
Submitted by Shilpa Mahapatre on Thu, 03/01/2012 - 23:26.
So the market's upset about no more easing. whatev.I don't see anything that would change my mind about the uptrend in equities. I am upset that the Dow didn't even give me a correction lower to the 20 period SMA close. (How's that for a shallow correction??)
The U. S. Dollar Index rally from a 78.12 low shows that there's still buying support just above the major psychological level however I'm more interested in just how long the rally can sustain support above the 78.43 to 78.50 area.
Commodities Supportive for Majors by forexpros.com
Submitted by Sameer Kapoor on Wed, 02/08/2012 - 22:06.
Hello traders! Stocks are higher, USD reached new lows against the majors during Asian sessions, and it seems that this type of a price action will continue this week, especially after a sharp impulsive break on Eur/Usd yesterday out of its 6-day consolidation range. USD weakness is also seen across the board because of higher commodities. Gold and oil are looking very bullish after reversal from the lows few sessions back.
Forex Analysis by Gregor Horvat at ForexPros. com
Forex Analysis by Gregor Horvat at ForexPros. com
Dollar Headed Lower In Coming Weeks
Submitted by Sameer Kapoor on Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:21.
A sharp fall from 81.80 area seen in the past few weeks is impulsive, which means that we have a temporary top in place, likely of a wave I, which was an expanding diagonal. That is type of a motive wave, where structure allows overlap between waves four and one.With this being said, at least three waves of a pull-back is now underway within wave two, which will ideally reach 50-61.8% retracement area and then reverse from.
Its Now The Time to be Long Crude!?
Submitted by Sameer Kapoor on Fri, 01/27/2012 - 16:06.
Oil found the support in this week around 97.45, where could be a start of a new impulsive bullish cylce after some choppy and overlapping downward price action seen lately. Notice the recent swing also occurred from 50% Fibo support, which in many cases provides important reversals in trend. As such, we suspect that prices will revisit January highs, but we still need to see a break through the falling channel resistance line and 102 swing high that will lock the current lows!
Forex Analysis by Gregor Horvat at ForexPros. com
Forex Analysis by Gregor Horvat at ForexPros. com
Gbp/Usd: Headed Up To 1.5670 Later This Week
Submitted by Sameer Kapoor on Wed, 01/25/2012 - 15:12.
A sharp rally at the end of the past week changes the outlook and the wave structure of the pair. We have seen quite strong and sharp recovery over the past few days, which has a personality of an impulsive advance.
As such, we came out with an idea that pair is actually trading in wave C leg of a larger complex corrective wave 2) "expanded flat pattern", especially after a recent break through the falling trend-line. Based on this count, pound should rise further in this week, above 1.5670 level.
As such, we came out with an idea that pair is actually trading in wave C leg of a larger complex corrective wave 2) "expanded flat pattern", especially after a recent break through the falling trend-line. Based on this count, pound should rise further in this week, above 1.5670 level.
Gold Now Looking Bullish For 1st Half of 2012
Submitted by Sameer Kapoor on Tue, 01/24/2012 - 15:29.
Gold made a sharp and even impulsive rally from its recent lows towards the falling trend from from 1920. This type of a price action and the wave structure is showing early but very important signs of a completed corrective pull-back in wave IV. So the next key level for a bullish advance will be a decisive break of that trend line and also then of 1800 wave (B) resistance.
Gold 4h trend is clearly bullish but overboutgh, so we expect some ind of a corrective pull-back from that 211 trend line
Gold 4h trend is clearly bullish but overboutgh, so we expect some ind of a corrective pull-back from that 211 trend line
Euro And Cable: Temporary Recovery
Submitted by Sameer Kapoor on Mon, 01/23/2012 - 16:07.
A rally in this past week through falling trend line connected from 1.425 top suggests that an impulsive wave (1) is finished and that larger corrective pull-back is underway. This is a blue wave (2), which must be subdivided by three legs before we may look for a downtrend continuation again. Nice resistance/reversal area for this wave (2) comes in at 1.3200-1.3500 range!
GBP/USD:
Cable rallied sharply in this past week with an increasing bullish momentum and the weekly close, which in fact also broke through falling trend line as shown on the chart. As such, we decided to adjust the wave count into more liekly scenario; incomplete wave 2) expanded flat formation. In this case price will rally above 1.5770 wave A top in coming week.
GBP/USD:
Cable rallied sharply in this past week with an increasing bullish momentum and the weekly close, which in fact also broke through falling trend line as shown on the chart. As such, we decided to adjust the wave count into more liekly scenario; incomplete wave 2) expanded flat formation. In this case price will rally above 1.5770 wave A top in coming week.
Get Ready For Stock Market Collapse In 2012
Submitted by Sameer Kapoor on Tue, 01/17/2012 - 12:26.
A fall from 2007 down to 2009 March lows unfolded clearly in impulsive structure, which we know is indication of a trend. As such, we are very confident that larger trend has now turned down, especially after only 3-waves of recovery into 1370 region; exactly for 78.6% retracement of previous impulsive fall! In fact, even a fall from this year high unfolded impulsively labeled as wave (1) followed by wave (2) corrective pull-back, which will look for a top around 1300 area.
Notice that we are also monitoring a huge head and shoulders pattern, which is about to complete very soon! Right shoulder is wave (2) on the chart, which is in final stages!
Notice that we are also monitoring a huge head and shoulders pattern, which is about to complete very soon! Right shoulder is wave (2) on the chart, which is in final stages!
Is Daily Trend On Crude Oil About To Change!?
Submitted by Sameer Kapoor on Mon, 01/16/2012 - 11:22.
Oil made a new high in the past few trading days around 103.70 from where we saw a minor decline in the second part of this past week. Well, a decline is still not impulsive a lower time frame, means its not in five waves yet, the only structure that can confirm a change in trend: But we however can see that prices are already testing a very important support line connected from 74.80, where a breakout will definitely suggest that top was made for wave (2) and that this market will move much deeper.
Do not forget that a decline from 2011 high was made in five waves, so we definitely expect that this bearish direction will continue this year! Check the weekly chart for larger wave count.
Do not forget that a decline from 2011 high was made in five waves, so we definitely expect that this bearish direction will continue this year! Check the weekly chart for larger wave count.
Cable: Bearish Scenario For 2012 by Forexpros.com
Submitted by Sameer Kapoor on Thu, 01/12/2012 - 16:00.
A decline from 2008 pick into 2009 low was in five waves, which in Elliott Wave theory indicates a direction of a larger trend. This is called an impulse wave, and once this leg is complete you will see a reversal in price, against the trend, normally into a slow, choppy and overlapping price action which is personality of a correction. Well, this is exactly what we are seeing on cable since 2009. As such, we are very confident that pair is trapped in a corrective pattern, triangle which in fact may have already ended at 1.61. In such case, a sharp weakness will follow in 2012, with prices headed below 1.35!
Forex Analysis by Gregor Horvat at ForexPros. com
Forex Analysis by Gregor Horvat at ForexPros. com
Usd/Chf: Bearish Waves Yet To Come
Submitted by Sameer Kapoor on Wed, 01/04/2012 - 16:51.
Usd/Chf was trading higher for the past few weeks, which is nice as we called end of a corrective pull-back at 0.8560. Well, from there price was moving higher quite slowly, with over-lapping price action and trapped within two parallel trend-lines. We know that this is personality of a corrective price action, so we believe that move into a new high over the past two months was wave (B), part of incomplete wave II flat.
Notice that price recent reversed below the channel support line, which is now trying to react as a resistance. This is a very nice, typical indication for a start of a temporary bearish moves!
Notice that price recent reversed below the channel support line, which is now trying to react as a resistance. This is a very nice, typical indication for a start of a temporary bearish moves!
Eur/Usd Headed Much Lower In 2012
Submitted by Sameer Kapoor on Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:08.
A) significant weakness in the second part of 2011 puts more weakness into play for 2012, as recent decline suggests that huge running triangle in wave.
B) is finished with sub-wave E at 1.4240. In fact, we can see a head and shoulder pattern that was unfolding since 2010, which also appears complete after a broken neckline in the past few weeks. As such, we believe that Eur/Usd will fall sharply in this year with wave.
C) headed towards 1.1000.
B) is finished with sub-wave E at 1.4240. In fact, we can see a head and shoulder pattern that was unfolding since 2010, which also appears complete after a broken neckline in the past few weeks. As such, we believe that Eur/Usd will fall sharply in this year with wave.
C) headed towards 1.1000.
Gold Now Headed Below 1530 by ForexPros.com
Submitted by Shilpa Mahapatre on Thu, 12/29/2011 - 23:25.
Commodities are trading lower in this week, while US dollar is rising sharply after reversal lower on equities. One of the very weak markets is also gold, which definitely does not have a status of a safe-haven at this point of time. In fact, if we take a look on the intra-day sub-structure from 1641 high, then we can see some sharp bearish moves, which seems to be an impulsive pattern, but likely incomplete. From an Elliott Wave perspective, we believe that yesterdays sharp decline was wave three, so any bounce in the near-term will be only another corrective leg; wave four of an impulsive. We know that impulses are structured by five sub-waves, so more weakness is expected after a minor pull-back, ideally from 1565.
Gold And S&P500 Disconnected by ForexPros.com
Submitted by Shilpa Mahapatre on Wed, 12/28/2011 - 23:01.
Gold collapsed signification in the past week, after breaking 1700 mark. We can see a very sharp price action, similar ot wave we saw in wave (A9 from 1920 peak. We know that those sharp and long moves in relatively short period of time are impulsive waves. As such, we believe that impulsive wave (C) is underway, which should reach 1400 region; equality of wave (A) measured from wave (B) 1800 top.
Trend from the past week clearly remains down, and should continue while 1760 holds.
Trend from the past week clearly remains down, and should continue while 1760 holds.
More Upside For FX-Majors as Risk Trade Finds Buyers by ForexPros.com
Submitted by Shilpa Mahapatre on Wed, 12/21/2011 - 21:21.
Traders who stayed at their charts through Asian session, could take advantage of that bullish move on Aud/Usd, which went just straight up from 1.0050 area.
Dollar as we can see is clearly bearish across the board, even against the Eur which was one of the weakest currencies for the past few days and weeks. So in current environment, when stocks are up, and we expect that this "upward move" will continue, we suggest you to avoid Euro for now, because now this currency will probably have the lowest gain compared to the others (Aud, Cad....).
Aud/usd
Move as we can see is very extended and sharp, typical wave three personality of an impulsive structure. As such, any deep pull-back in the near-future will be wave 4, likely of 3).
Dollar as we can see is clearly bearish across the board, even against the Eur which was one of the weakest currencies for the past few days and weeks. So in current environment, when stocks are up, and we expect that this "upward move" will continue, we suggest you to avoid Euro for now, because now this currency will probably have the lowest gain compared to the others (Aud, Cad....).
Aud/usd
Move as we can see is very extended and sharp, typical wave three personality of an impulsive structure. As such, any deep pull-back in the near-future will be wave 4, likely of 3).
More Downside For Euro In This Week As S&P Eyeing 1200
Submitted by Sameer Kapoor on Tue, 12/20/2011 - 14:46.
In this week we will keep a very close eye on the S&P500, which still shows clearly corrective but incomplete decline towards 1200 area. In the first two days of trading, we expect some dollar buying, actually a continuation from the past week, while S&P will look to make a one more low within corrective move. In fact, euro recovery appears clearly corrective on 1h chart below, so we expect further weakness here, before trend reverses in-line with the S&P. But then it will be time to keep an eye on Aud/Usd, as already discussed in the past weeks video analysis. If you missed it click here.
Eur/Usd
Eur/Usd
More Gains For The US dollar To Come While The S&P Futures Tradeing Lower
Submitted by Harish Chandra ... on Tue, 12/13/2011 - 18:21.
S&P Futures are trading sharply lower at the start of the US session and based on the wave structure, we think that prices will reach even lower levels in coming session. Wave (c) is eyeing levels around 1210-1215, which suggests more strength for the US dollar, based on the overlay chart!
Aud/Usd Aussie reversed impulsively from 1.0220 region where we believe that wave B) reached the top. As such, current weakness is part of a red wave C), which is headed below parity, and ideally into 0.9930 region. Any near-term pull-back higher will be only temporary, black wave 2 before further weakness occurs.
Aud/Usd Aussie reversed impulsively from 1.0220 region where we believe that wave B) reached the top. As such, current weakness is part of a red wave C), which is headed below parity, and ideally into 0.9930 region. Any near-term pull-back higher will be only temporary, black wave 2 before further weakness occurs.
