Modi is reaching out to India's Muslims
– and they may vote for him
BJP efforts to win over Muslims, especially in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, could well be effective if voters see it
as a safe optionBJP Leader Narendra Modi Campaigns In Gujarat
'If Modi is to come to power, it will likely be as part of a coalition. This has forced the BJP to scramble for as many votes as possible.' Photograph: Kevin Frayer/Getty
On an unlit lane in Juhapura, a Muslim neighbourhood of Ahmedabad, the largest city in India's western state of Gujarat, 20-year-old Muslim Faizan Mansuri plays cricket on his smartphone. Juhapura, where I have lived since 2012, has few paved roads or sewage systems and each year about 2,000 children are denied an education because of a lack of schools. Once a mixed Hindu and Muslim area in the 1970s, today almost all of us 400,000 residents are Muslim.
Faizan, who is voting for the first time, believes this election is about the economy and looking forward: "I know about the riots, I know about the problems Muslims face in this country, but I am going to vote for [Narendra] Modi. He is good for the economy and if Modi becomes prime minister, he will be able to improve the economy in time for my graduation in 2016 when I start searching for a job."
Faizan's comments would make Modi, the front-running prime ministerial candidate representing the Bharatiya Janata party (BJP), drool as he tries to woo India's Muslim vote in this election.
In order for any single party to form the government, it needs to secure 272 of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of parliament that will select India's next PM. Most argue that the BJP will fall short of this total as no single party has secured a majority of seats since 1989. If Modi is to come to power, it will likely be as part of a coalition. This has forced the BJP to scramble for as many votes as possible, including reaching out to a segment the Hindu nationalist party has often ignored: India's Muslims.
India has the world's second largest Muslim population with about 176 million Muslims making up 14% of the population. The election will be largely decided on by the outcome of two states: Uttar Pradesh, which has 200 million residents and 80 seats in the Lok Sabha, with a Muslim population of 18%; and Bihar which has about 100 million and 40 seats with a Muslim population of 16.5%.
The BJP has been in overdrive for the past few months trying to win over these two states and their large Muslim populations. In March, Modi gave a speech in Bihar to a predominantly Muslim audience at which he boasted that Muslims in Gujarat are wealthier and better educated than in any other parts of India. Supporters of Modi even released a music video showing Muslim men and women dressed in odd-looking hats and scarves with feathers stuck in them. I can confirm Muslims in India do not dress like this. In some ways, the BJP's outreach efforts resemble a comedy skit by the American duo Key and Peele where the Tea Party is shown as all too eager to embrace a black supporter so they can clean up their image of being a predominantly white movement.
In fact the BJP is so serious about embracing Muslim voters that in its election manifesto, the party promised the restoration of Muslim heritage sites and a commitment to promoting Muslim education. The manifesto did not, however, explain why Modi's government opposed efforts to provide funds for the reconstruction of the mosques and shrines destroyed in the 2002 Gujarat riots, or why they tried to block funds for minority scholarships in Gujarat.
And yet despite this, Modi's outreach plan is working. MJ Akbar is one of India's most celebrated Muslim writers who once compared Modi to Hitler. In March, Akbar announced he was joining the BJP. But can Modi convince other Muslims to vote for him? And does he really need their support?
According to a poll by the Indian broadcaster NDTV, 8% of Muslims in the key state of Uttar Pradesh are expected to vote for Modi. In Gujarat, this number is even higher – about 15%. The reasons for this are varied. Some Muslims in Gujarat support the BJP because they are frustrated with the Congress party which, like the BJP, has also instigated and benefitted from religious riots. Others support the BJP because they believe Modi will bring India out of its economic slump. But some Muslims support Modi, at least in Gujarat, out of fear.
A Muslim physician in Ahmedabad had his clinic burned down during the riots of 2002. Today the halls leading to his office are filled with tiles depicting Hindu gods and goddesses that he hopes may act as a deterrent during future riots in Gujarat, which he fears is a matter of when, not if. In this election, he will be voting for Modi's BJP when Gujarat heads to the polls on 30 April. "I vote for my safety now," he says. "I have two children and maybe if Hindus know I am a BJP voter, they will see me as one of the good Muslims."
This is the BJP effect: it has convinced many Hindus in India that the rational, forward-thinking, patriotic Muslims are the ones who support Modi and the bad Muslims are those who speak critically of Modi record, including his alleged role in the 2002 Gujarat riots.
The BJP would like voters to believe that its new Muslim supporters have been fully welcomed as equals to the party's predominantly Hindu base. But the reality is quite different. When the cameras and tape recorders are switched off, Muslim supporters of the BJP say they understand that they are an accessory – not a companion – in Modi's efforts to become India's next prime minister.
• This article was amended on 23 April 2014. The original article stated that 292 of 543 seats need to be secured for a single party to form government when in fact it is 272.
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